Game Design, Programming and running a one-man games business…

Solar farm: The rough economic model

As you may know, I’m hoping to build a solar farm. In fact we are pretty far down the road of doing it. The current status of the farm is:

  • Grid connection quote accepted and £50k deposit paid
  • Lease agreed and waiting on final signature by landowner
  • Planning application applied for, currently being edited, waiting for final approval
  • Panels ordered and 10% deposit paid

To recap: This is hopefully a 1.2MWP solar far, (about 3,000 panels) in England, with a small element of battery storage (likely 256kwh or maybe 512kwh of battery). It will be grid-tied, and will sell electricity to the grid using a power purchase agreement (PPA).

So how do the economics of all this work? Well basically you spend a huge amount of money up front (maybe £1.2million) and then recoup that investment, with hopefully some profit, over the farms lifetime, which is often calculated at 25 years but is likely to be 40+. Thus the spreadsheet for the whole project looks like a catastrophic loss, easing gradually over time into a decent profit as the years tick by. Here are some rough numbers (but not *that* rough, as I actually have paid some of this now…

Up front Costs:

  • All the various bureaucratic nonsense involved in a big planning application: ~£30,000
  • A quote for a grid connection: £3,600
  • Initial fee to landowner (one-off) £10,000
  • Solar panels, inverters and installation: ~£680,000
  • Grid connection: ~£150,000
  • Battery: ~£240,000
  • Total up-front cost: ~£1,200,000

Yikes.

Now lets look at the ongoing costs:

Ongoing Costs (per year)

  • Rent to landowner: £5,000
  • Insurance: £2,000
  • Maintenance: £4,000

There are also some other costs that its easy to forget such as…

  • Accountancy for the company £660
  • Energy trading software subscription: £420
  • Cost to replace all the inverters once: £1,200

The Economics

So is this profitable? Well… it depends. Hopefully! Basically its a bet on the long term wholesale price of energy. In the UK we have an ‘energy price cap’ which a rather economically illiterate government introduced as a popular measure to prevent people’s fuel bills going too high for their political comfort. Of course, we could invest in more infrastructure and better insulation but…nah. Anyway, this is thankfully not a concern in the world of energy generation because the wholesale price is uncapped, and has been skyrocketing.

In normal years, the fact that the price of solar panels has shot up and labor costs have shot up too…would be devastating to the economic case for solar farms, but luckily wholesale energy prices have been crazy high too. This was BEFORE the Russia-Ukraine war, which has pushed them up even further.

The bad news is… the figures I have may all have to go up because of rampant inflation. However, assuming they do not, the break even point is now:

  • 13 years at a wholesale cost of £60/MWH
  • 9 years at £100
  • 6 years at £140

Right now, PPA (purchase power agreements) are super-high at around £200, but this is unlikely to last, especially with so many big new energy generation facilities coming online. The situation is very complex because supply side we have these factors:

  • Closure of old nuclear plants
  • Opening of new nuclear at Hinkley point
  • Potential new small nuclear power
  • New wind farms coming online
  • New large-scale solar coming online

Meanwhile on the demand side we have:

  • Rollout of electric cars in the UK
  • Phase-out of gas boilers in favor of air source heat pumps
  • Phase out of gas-for-power as we strategically move away from foreign gas reserves to home-generated power.
  • The push for Net Zero / Climate change concerns.

So when it comes down to it, this is a BIG BET, that the demand side outweighs the supply side. I think this is a good bet, but its still a risk. if it pays off well, it might be a very profitable investment, but if that happens, I’m not going to feel guilty about it. It could easily go wrong, and actually LOSE money, so there has to be a risk-premium attached to locking up this money for 25-40 years (effectively the rest of my life).

I’ll do an updated post once I have more information, especially if we actually get planning permission, and a signed lease and then firm battery quotes (because that means the rent is definitely fixed, and I have a real battery quote, not a guess).

Why you SHOULD get a smart meter

In the UK, we are in the middle of a smart meter rollout. Basically energy firms keep pestering their customers to get a smart meter. The government is encouraging this. Many people I know are very negative and grumpy about this, probably because they are, in general, cynical about government initiatives, and have a hostility towards electricity companies. Plus there is a ton of silly conspiracy theory bullshit to select from.

Getting a smart meter is involved because you need some space around your existing meter to install it. This means for people like me whose meter was crammed into a box, you have to do a staggering amount of work to make a (free) smart meter install possible. I did it anyway. This blog will explain why.

Firstly…what is a smart meter? Its basically an electricity meter that connects via the phone network to a wide-area-network and can report your electricity usage in half hour segments remotely. This means nobody has to come to your house and ‘read’ the meter. Its also digital (at last) instead of an old fashioned 1950s style monstrosity with a spinning disk and analog readouts… Smart meters are fitted for free by your electricity company. My install was way more involved than that for tedious reasons, not least because I have a solar panel array and also an electric car charger. Thus my setup now looks this complex:

Top left is a fusebox (consumer unit in modern-speak), top right another fusebox (for the solar panels). Middle left is the solar panel generation meter for calculating my feed-in-tariff from the government, the white box to the right is the smart meter, and to the right of that is the black box with the main power fuse for the house. MOST people’s houses have far less complex electrics than this!

Why does the government want us all to have smart reasons? Well there are two reasons. One is talked about, another is fiendishly complex, and you have to do a lot of reading about energy markets and the national grid and talk to solar farm installers to work it out. Lets start with the first reason.

Smart meters make you save energy

This is the official reason we all need one. It sounds like it must be nonsense, but its actually super-true. I’m someone who is OBSESSED with efficiency and knows a lot about energy efficiency, and the smart meter effect even works on me. You get a remote gadget like a tiny tablet that shows you your current energy usage, and how much you have spent so far today. You can also get an app for your phone, which is tons better and displays pretty graphs and goes into a lot more detail, but ignoring that for now the in-home-display unit is actually quite cool.

Why do smart meters come with an In-Home Display? | Blog | Bulb

The display even has a tiny, not-oft-seen icon that lights up to show you when you are exporting power back to the electricity grid, should you be fortunate enough to have solar panels and generating more than you are using. This is an immediate sign that you should charge some laptops or phones or put the dishwasher on :D

Cynically, you might think that just ‘knowing’ how much power you use will achieve nothing, but it really does. We can see the massive spike when we put on an electric heater, and an even bigger spike if I plug in my electric car. If you look at the more fine-grained data on the smartphone app, you can see every time you boiled a kettle. Just seeing the massive difference between using one appliance versus another makes you think. And energy prices having shot up means those numbers are about to get way bigger.

So this reason is all about social engineering. Show people WHEN they are spending most of the electricity and they will make smarter decisions. Dishwashers running half empty are a waste of energy. Leaving an electric heater on when you are not in that room is a big waste of money. As people realize this, they will adapt their lives in subtle ways that reduce their energy consumption.

This is the main reason given, but its only part of the puzzle

Demand shifting and protecting the grid

Almost all western countries electricity grids are the same. There are a few super-huge power stations, normally in coastal areas, or remote areas, then a big fat network of pylons carrying the power to local substations, which then run cables to each house. I missed a few steps there, but generally that is the layout. Also most grids are OLD. population density is higher since the grids were built out, but the layout has remained the same. Until recently its kind of worked ok. Before I explain why its not working so well now, here are some technical details.

The UK electricity grid runs at a certain frequency. Its *roughly* 50 HZ. In fact, there are real-time-websites that let you see the current frequency of the grid. Right now it is 49.965HZ. This is really important. Its important because a lot of electrical equipment, especially really expensive electrical equipment, will absolutely freak out and fail/catch fire/explode if its much above or below that frequency. The frequency depends on the balance of supply and demand.

What that means is, that some organization (in the UK its national grid plc) has to keep turning power plants on and off again, to ensure that supply matches demand closely enough that the energy grid frequency remains within a narrow band. If they are going to fail to achieve that, they have to take drastic action, like closing entire sections of the grid off, in other words a power cut. This is a VERY big deal, so its to be avoided at all costs. How do they manage this?

Its generally not been too bad, because demand for energy is pretty predictable. The national grid checks weather reports, to see what temperatures will be (to determine the need for heaters or fans/air conditioning), predicts that supply, and then schedules power station output to match it. This sounds easy, and it is…for certain types of power. Britain gets about 15% of its power from nuclear, which always runs flat-out, which means the flexibility has to come from other sources. In our case, thats gas-fired power stations, which can be turned on and off fairly quickly.

This has been happening for decades and everything has been fine. What makes it work even in cases of extreme demand is that we also have cables connecting us to France, and other countries that let us export power (rare) or import it (more common). However its starting to get tricky, really tricky, its starting to get unmanageable.

Renewable energy has entered the chat

Renewable energy is awesome. I’m a true believer, I’m even building a solar farm. But it brings challenges. Renewable energy is cheap, and environmentally awesome, but its variable. Some days its cloudy. Some days its windy. This introduces instability into the grid, meaning its MUCH more likely that we sometimes have way too much energy, and other times we have way too little. This can be accounted for and managed…but its introducing huge complexity.

FWIW, the national grid has put in place LOTS of ways to manage this. They all have exciting names and acronyms like ‘Fast Frequency Response’ and ‘Load Shedding’ and ‘Peak Shaving’. Its a whole super-involved ecosystem of trying to manage, in real-time, to keep that demand equal to supply while handling multiple different energy types, and demand spikes, and free-market energy trading systems.

You might think that electricity has just gone up 50% in the UK and that this is a big deal. Haha. You know nothing Jon Snow. Lets look at the real charts behind the headlines, that nobody outside the industry even looks at:

BTW, if you are on a long term fixed price energy tariff, you are paying the equivalent of about 50-60 on that chart. So…. looking forward to a potential trebling of energy prices? maybe even a quadrupling? But although this chart should alarm politicians, its not the one that alarms people trying to balance our grid with renewables. here are some more fun charts:

Electricity is traded in half hour chunks. No idea why, so 48 on the X axis is one day. You can see that the electricity price on the wholesale free market in the Uk yesterday ranged from £-50 to £229.90 per megawatt hour, in a single day. This is NOT at all unusual. This chart is an outcome of some desperate attempts to match demand to supply. Talking of supply:

This is what they are trying to balance. Nuclear is 100% inflexible, and must run all of the time (for economic reasons). Wind and Solar do their thing, and then we try and balance the rest by exporting/importing using the interconnectors. The thing is… we still cant do it, so we need to change the demand as well as the supply, or the whole house of cards will collapse…

Demand Management

If supply is an absolute random number generator, you need to change demand, otherwise we are in trouble. The grid already has systems in place to do this in both directions. You can be paid a regular flat fee by the grid, to agree that if they REALLY need to, they can turn off your electricity. This is for big factories and aluminum smelting plants, which draw huge power. If what you do is super-time-critical, this is unattractive, but for some industries its perfect. Thats load-shedding.

Another method is to create a market for energy storage. This is a real thing. The solar farm I am building will also have a 500kwh battery. Thats like 7 or 8 electric cars. The options available to you when you have battery storage are myriad, and very complex. This is where peak shaving and firm-frequency response come in. Peak-shaving is basically a way of smoothing out a sine wave by storing energy when you have too much, and releasing that energy back when you have too little. Some solar farms or other renewable systems can do this. Its especially helpful for solar farms because typical solar output looks like this over a day:

Thats my solar output yesterday. The thing is…if you scale this up we have a huge huge problem. The problem is this: The electricity grid cannot cope.

Remember my earlier description. The grid is old, and designed for a small number of big phat power stations. Incredibly high power and capacity cables run from sites like Sizewell nuclear power station to big cities like London and Birmingham. This works fine. But the cables that go out to all the smaller towns and the rural locations with wind farms and solar farms? These cables suck. They have no capacity to add further generation. They are ‘constrained’ in energy-industry-speak. Upgrading these cables costs a FORTUNE, and I know that, because I’m making a bank transfer today of £50k as a down-payment on an upgrade to some cables for my solar farm. Even if you are happy to pay, in many cases the grid upgrades are just catastrophically hard to do, and slow to do, and we don’t have time for that. We NEED to add renewable energy faster than we can upgrade the grid.

Save the grid!

In a situation where you cannot upgrade the grid, you are left staring at that solar chart thinking “hmmm…if only this was more predictable…”. Like this:

This is peak shaving. Take off the peaks and fill in the troughs. Its still not a flat supply, but its capped at a much lower level than the natural peak. If that natural peak would overload the grid, then we can still connect our big solar farm, but we use peak shaving to put less of a ceiling on our grid output. Plus the grid loves us…because they get a way less ‘spiky’ energy supply to contend with.

To make it clear: when the chart is red, we are sending some of our power to the battery. When its green, we are draining the battery.

Thats peak shaving. Firm-frequency response is different. Thats when the grid pays you, as a battery owner, to reserve usage of your batteries, with no-warning, if they suddenly need to dump power in it, or to whip that power back if they suddenly need it back. This happens on a VERY short timescale (think seconds or less). This is how they can keep that frequency where it should be.

How does this make me want a smart meter?

What I’m describing there is how renewable energy companies can make money, and how the energy industry is coping with renewables. But this also can affect us. To put it bluntly: we are not, and can not build enough batteries to keep up with the demand for frequency response issues for quite a while. For the foreseeable future, we will need to expand the size of the economy that we can do demand-management on. That means that individual home owners need to get in on the action.

Right now, my electricity company charge me £0.24 per kwh of power. If I want it now, its £0.24. If I want it at 3AM, it £0.24, so I frankly don’t care when I use power I KNOW I have to use.

Luckily I have 3 weapons at my disposal that will allow me, as a smug smart meter owner, to ‘haggle’ with the energy company. I own a dishwasher, a washing machine and… *drumroll* an electric car. I NEED the dishes washed today, the clothes washed today and the car charged over the next 12 hours, but I dont REALLY care the exact time any of this happened. So make me an offer…

Star Trek Minus Context on Twitter: "https://t.co/Svy8TL5am9" / Twitter

I don’t plug my car in every day, it doesn’t need it, but if I knew that I might get an offer of power for £0.01 /kwh at 4am tomorrow, I’ll fill my car up to the max. That suits me fine, and it suits the desperately-balancing grid even finer. Its a huge win-win, and smooths out some of those crazy price spikes. This sort of thing is ONLY possible with smart meters.

I’m about to swap to a different tariff, for EV owners, that gives me nighttime power at 75% off. This suits me perfectly, I’ll schedule the car charging and other stuff to run during those off peak hours. Excellent. Good for me, and good for the grid. And yes…EV owners are a minority for now, but a rapidly growing one. A big EV has an 85-100kwh battery, which represents a HUGE chunk of your electricity consumption. If everyone ends up with an EV, and we can all have the charging times auto-negotiated with the grid, thats a big win.

Notice that this is NOT ‘vehicle-to-grid’, where your car acts as a grid-connected battery. Thats a different, and interesting issues, but we don’t even need that. What we need is just to have ‘smart’ usage of electricity. We need to do localized peak-shaving in our communities so that the draw from each community is smoothed out and manageable.

The need for this is even greater when you consider rooftop solar. In an ideal world, if I’m on holiday but its sunny, my solar panels can charge my neighbors EV or run their dishwasher, without that energy ever needing to leave this village and put a strain on the main trunk-roads of the grid. It CANNOT put a strain on the grid, because the grid is already creaking like crazy.

Climate change is driving us to have more electric cars AND more renewable energy, meaning we demand more from the grid, just as it becomes more unstable. Smart meters HAVE to be rolled out to everyone ASAP, and I decided to get ahead of the chaos and the crush by getting mine early. If you live in the UK you WILL end up with a smart meter, and it will likely save you money. There is no real reason to avoid getting to the front of the queue before the queue explodes in size. It took me 3 months to get mine. Electricity prices have risen dramatically since I applied…

Solar farm development update: panels

I know it seems that there is no progress on my solar farm… but there is. I last posted about it in october, and despite the pandemic and Christmas, there has actually been some progress.

To recap, there is a list of things you need to do in order to build a solar farm:

  • Get planning permission
  • Sign a lease with landowner
  • Get an electricity grid connection quote
  • Order panels and optionally a battery
  • Actually build out the farm

In theory, you would get planning first, and do nothing else, because ALL the other things are super expensive, so if you fail to get planning permission, its all money wasted. However, planning can take months to prepare and maybe 2-3 months to actually get, so that adds 2-3 months at the START of the project. You then may need to wait 6 months for a grid connection, and 3 months for panels to be delivered (given current supply woes, normally easier).

So if you do everything in the right order it could easily end up dragging to over a year from the start before you actually put a single post in the ground on-site.

Frankly, we need to hurry this shit up. There is a reason we now say climate emergency. We need to get extra renewable energy capacity operating right NOW. And also, I hate waiting for stuff, and find the process to be stupidly drawn out, so I am pushing to go faster and faster. As a result here is where we are:

  • Lease is signed at my end (still awaiting final bill from lawyer and countersigned copy.
  • Planning permission has been applied for, and paid for (about £9k….just to APPLY for permission).
  • A grid connection quote was paid for, and we have it, but have not accepted yet (its a six figure sum, will wait for some feedback on planning, if not full permission).
  • Panels got ordered this week.

This is all pretty good progress. Building out the farm will take maybe 8 weeks. I’m hoping to get planning permission on the first attempt, hopefully in the next 8 weeks, so some time in April with any luck. Panels are expected to show up at the start of Q3, so in July.

This means that if we get good planning feedback, we can take the risk of agreeing to the grid connection earlier (maybe March?) and that then starts the clock ticking on that. Even assuming a rapid (ha!) 6 months for that, we will not get a connection until August/September.

This whole project is a minefield of timelines, because its a situation where the actual useful operation of the farm is dependent on the slowest/latest part of the process. No point in having an installed farm with no grid connection. No point in having a connected farm, with no panels. My gut feeling is that we end up with planning permission, panels delivered, everything else delivered, even the battery, and we end up with a farm, sat idle and not connected because we are waiting on the grid.

If you think being charged a six figure sum for some upgraded powerlines would get you super-fast priority, then you would be wrong. Frankly the grid is just not designed to handle this at all, and the companies seem to have no tight schedule enshrined in law to ensure new power generation gets connected on a short timescale.

But anyway…

Progress at last, and it means my spin off energy company is no longer a small side project. We ordered over 3,000 panels, and they are BIG ones (410 watts each), and the total weight is 70 tons. I’m not sure how many truckloads or container loads 70 tons is, but its certainly not trivial.

For those technically interested, the panels are from QCells (South Korean), 410watt. Black (monocrystaline) They are 20.9% efficiency (which is pretty good). After 10 years they guarantee 93.5% output, after 25 years its 86%. This is pretty standard for high quality panels.

I’ll do another update when another chunk of stuff happens, probably when we say yes to the grid connection, or planning goes through. You *can* get a partial refund on a grid connection you agree to, but cancel if everything fails (ie: you only pay for works they have currently carried out). I think agreeing early will be prudent, because I strongly suspect that the connection costs are pretty back-loaded, with real costs not being incurred until workmen are out on site installing new poles and building a substation.

Solar Farm Update #2

So…it turns out its a loong time since I blogged about positech energy, so here we go with an update…of sorts.

Quick recap: I started a new company that is in the process of hopefully building a 1MW solar farm with 500kwh of grid-tied battery storage for frequency response/load shifting. Its privately owned by me and my wife.

Progress TAKES FOREVER if you actually want to build something in the UK. Not because of covid, or shortages, or because of Brexit (it would be convenient to blame all 3), but just because nobody in the UK, especially bureaucrats have any sense of urgency whatsoever. Its absolutely infuriating. But anyway… some progress is being made. Here is the basic high level run-down of whats involved in building a solar farm:

  • Find a site where a landowner is open to having a solar farm, and where grid connection is possible, and where grid capacity is available and planning permission is likely.
  • Get an agreement in principle with the landowner regarding rent and location of the panels, and stuff like access roads, location of substations.
  • Gather all the myriad insane pieces of paperwork, like visual impact assessments, biodiversity reports, archaeological surveys and other assorted paperwork needed to apply for planning.
  • Apply for planning permission
  • Apply to the DNO (Grid network operator for that region) for a grid connection quote.
  • Get the grid connection
  • Order battery/panels
  • Install everything
  • Profit! (ha…maybe).

The actual order these things happen in is subject to change. There is a definite matter of chicken and egg when it comes to some of them. A grid connection application costs £750, and planning permission costs £7,500 (just to apply, no guarantees). So you don’t really want to spend £7.5k without knowing if the connection is affordable, and conversely the £750 is wasted if you don’t get permission. The problem is both the DNO grid quote AND planning permission take ages, so they can easily add months each to development time.

Also note that a grid connection quote does not mean ‘we can start Monday’. It could be ‘That will be £30,000 but we cant start for six months’. This means you really ideally do not want to wait several months for planning, then maybe a month for a DNO quote and add six months on the end of that… before you know it its 2050.

So My plan is to finalize the landowner agreement, and assuming thats ok, to do the pre-planning stuff (various paperwork) at the same time as the DNO application. At least that gets the ball rolling. Then, if it turns out we fail planning permission (£7.5k wasted) then an extra £750 isn’t a complete disaster, just a relatively minor additional loss.

It may seem ages since I announced I was doing this, and to be honest, little progress has been made. We found a site…and then the site was basically nabbed by someone else. Then we found a second site…and the grid connection cost was mad (but planning already existed). We are effectively just moving a few hundred meters from that site now into another field and thus doing planning from scratch (arggghh), but we reckon the planning costs in total (£15-20k) should be less than the reduction in grid connection costs due to shorter cable runs.

So right now we are still basically on the first item on the list, but hopefully close to finalizing the second. This required a topographical survey of the site, which is basically an extremely expensive CAD drawing of the elevation, which you need to reference in a lease, so both the land owner and you are 100% agreed on what part of what field contains what equipment.

This isn’t just 10 panels on a frame, but a battery storage unit (shipping container size), 2 electricity substations (one for us, one for the grid operator), an access road and 2,760 solar panels on frames, plus 9 seriously big inverters, so you need to be in full agreement on where this goes. Plus there may be CCTV and a perimeter fence. Its quite a lot of kit…

If everything fell apart now, then I would be down a non-trivial annoying amount of money, but this is to be expected when I start an energy company and start to build actual power stations. I suspect this site will go ahead ok, but its agonizing having so many things up in the air and out of my hands. Its precisely *because* doing this is hard, that I am doing it, to show other people how to do it, and so we get more built.

Expect blogging on this to increase as we get deeper into the process of planning applications. I would tell you all the specs of the panels/inverters but TBH they are all subject to change because of the unknown timescales involved in the grid connection and planning permission. Current plans are to get South Korean cells though, due to concerns about labor practices in China.

Crazy Energy prices, Short Deadlines, Solar Power.

This is not a blog post about games. Its because I also run a solar energy company, which is in its infancy, but hopefully will start doing cool things next year, like building a solar farm.

How often do you check the price of electricity? If you are like most people its…never. Maybe you go to a price comparison website every few years to see if you can get a better deal for your home electricity, but most people even then will not look at the actual price. Most people have no idea what their monthly electricity price is, and certainly no idea what the price per kwh (1,000 watts used for one hour) is.

I’m not like that.

The entire business model for the solar farm I hope to build next year (hopefully getting topographical survey results today,. probably signing the lease this month…), is based around the price of electricity being a certain value or higher. With current panel prices / inverter prices / storage prices and about 500 other factors, that minimum price is about £55 per MWH. (or £0.055 per kwh). This is the WHOLESALE price, not the price most end users pay. Its been around that price for a while.

Lets look at a fun wholesale price chart for the UK!

So…if you are looking at that and thinking you are confused because no way will the price of electricity be actually £160 per MWH compared to 55 this winter then… I have bad news for you. This chart is, AFAIK, correct. In fact, it gets way, way worse. Lets look at what the forward prices (prices at which electricity is being traded now for delivery at future dates) looked like on the 13th of September:

Yup. its insane. We have had at least one day where the price has spiked to nearly 10x what it had been for the last few years. The price if electricity in the UK for retail customers has a price cap, but thats due to be adjusted next month. The actual price cap rise is about 12%, which if you consider that peoples salaries have not exactly risen 12% in the last year, is pretty shocking, but the really interesting/scary story is that there is NO WAY that energy companies can stay in business with only a 12% rise. The regulator will HAVE to allow higher prices, and soon. They set the 12% change in August which is now…very out of date.

So why Am I blogging about this?

Because the UK is in a serious mess when it comes to energy. To put it bluntly: we cannot produce enough power to keep this country running. We have closed almost all coal mines (necessary, due to climate change), but we didn’t make enough of an effort to fill the gap. And now we are going to have to VERY rapidly switch from gasoline cars to electric cars, our power demand is actually going to go up, not down, despite the best energy efficiency measures.

There is an awesome website that tracks where the UK energy comes from in real time. The UI is horrible but you get the general idea. We have a fair amount of base-load nuclear, and some intermittent wind and solar, but a large part of our energy is either gas (whose prices are soaring, and is also a contributor to climate change and needs phasing out) or energy bought via connecting cables to France and Scandinavia.

Now to be a bit more optimistic I should point out that the UK IS building a huge amount of wind and solar power, but these things take time so we are hopefully currently in a bit of lag, where spiking energy prices should be a reminder that you need to build power-plants in advance of when they are needed, not after a crisis… but the problem is we are both doing it too slowly, and doing it wrong.

Too Slow

From a climate change point of view, the UK is a disaster. Sure, there are truly horrendous countries regarding climate policy such as Australia, but we have nothing to brag about here. Our adoption rate of Electric Cars is pathetic compared to countries like Norway, we have no major electric vehicle or battery production facilities in the entire country, and we got rid of all subsidies for solar power. (My solar farm will be subsidy free). Take-up of solar power for residential users is way too slow, insulation of our leaky homes has not really got going, and the government of the day is basically completely disinterested.

But thats just the background. In practice, even if the people were 100% behind green energy (and endless rants on facebook and planning objections from people who consider wind turbines an ‘eye-sore’ show they are not), and even if companies were full-steam ahead on building out renewable energy, I don’t think we are vaguely going to make it. And not because of evil government policies, and not because of technology… but because of planning.

The solar farm I’m building is tiny (powering about 300 homes), but the planning process is absolutely horrendous. The application itself costs an absolute fortune, and the number of completely different, yet legally required processes you have to go through are frankly ridiculous. You need to check there are no birds nesting nearby, no protected bat species anywhere nearby, need to check the field is not of archaeological interest, need to do mock-ups for every person for miles around showing what they may be able to see on the distant horizon… And the process takes months…

…and then once you have that, you need a grid connection and… guess what? That costs a fortune (only tens of thousands if you are lucky), and the process takes months. Maybe 6 months. Yes really. To connect a solar farm to the power grid.

Now don’t get me wrong, in terms of actual work done by people actually doing things, its maybe a week. But the paperwork and pen-pushing can take six months. The whole pre-building process for a 1MW plant can be a year or two years.

We.Do.Not.Have.Time.For.This. as a country. Planning reform is not some minor boring topic, its of national strategic importance. None of our climate change goals will be met without it.

Doing It Wrong

There is a brilliant opportunity before us. The energy market in the UK (and probably every country) is undergoing vast, vast change. There is a great moment here where we can bring about really awesome changes to the way people get their energy, and almost every country on earth is ignoring it, probably due to big phat bribes from lobbyists.

Wind power and hydro power are special cases. They only really work at SCALE. Sure, you can put a tiny wind turbine up in a field if you are a farmer, but the efficiency is low. Its just physics, and the doubling of a blade length meaning 4x the swept area and thus energy captured. In other words, Huge wind turbines make more economic sense than small ones. Same with hydro power (as the fixed costs of putting in a system of any size are high).

But setting aside that special case we have something really cool…solar power. This is a solution we should be embracing massively, yes even in the UK, and here is why:

Solar power scales DOWN really well. The economies of scale when it comes to solar are not actually that massive. Sure, they exist, and if I had the money I would totally build a 2MW solar farm instead of a 1MW one… but they are small enough that its still WAY better for you to generate your own power from your own rooftop than it is to buy the power from someone else’s solar farm. Wholesale energy used to be £0.05. Current retail is £0.19.

Every rooftop having solar power is kinda awesome, especially if there is local (either community or individual home) battery storage. It creates what are called ‘micro-grids’ which keep a lot of the back-and-forth of energy flow off of the main grid, and reduces the extent to which the grid needs mega upgrades to deal with the closure of gas plants and uptake of EVs.

We have 10 solar panels in the garden. Not enough, by any means, but still a decent contribution. At their peak, they generate about 2kw per hour. My EV car battery is huge (85kwh) but its not like we use the whole range every day. Here is the recent output:

My panels are almost exactly 10 years old, so they are low efficiency, old-tech polycrystaline ones that are shaded for part of each day, so my output is nothing close to what you would get with brand new panels on a rooftop. My actual energy use is high (working from home, multiple PCs on all day, electric cooking, electric car, old house), so if I could possibly fit some other panels somewhere I would. (In fact the solar farm, is born from my frustration at not being able to have my own home energy independence).

Anyway, the point i am making is that home-solar is totally viable, and the beauty of it is that is DEMOCRATIZES the grid. This is the first time in generations that people have had the option of being able to say to the big multinational companies controlling energy “Thanks guys, but I generate my own power”. Even if you cannot go off-grid, you can reduce the amount of power you need to buy. Its a brilliant way of giving some power back to people instead of letting them choose between maybe 6 identical giant corporations who will still happily make a profit.

We should be boosting residential solar big time. Its also GREAT for employment, because the installation on rooftops is actually pretty labour intensive. Panels are cheap now, a lot of the cost of the installation is just people going up ladders carrying stuff and connecting stuff.

Where is the push in the UK for rooftop solar? Nowhere. I cannot remember the last time a government minister mentioned it, or encouraged it, or even acknowledged it exists. Where is the information campaign? where is the support?

If we don’t start making noise about the alternatives we will find that the ‘green energy future’ looks exactly like the coal energy past, with giant faceless corporations squeezing money from all of us, with a ‘take it or leave it’ attitude. There is an opportunity here for something way better, if only people looked into it.